Research paper examines link between education ‘arms race’ and fewer children
Research presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity find that social comparisons and heavy spending on children may be discouraging larger families.
Parents comparing children’s achievements online may be doing more than swapping stories. They may also be influencing global population trends.
“Policy Concerns in an Era of Low Fertility: The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting,” a paper presented Sept. 26 at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference, examines how education “arms races” affect family size.
The authors — Lukas Mahler of KU Leuven, Michèle Tertilt of the University of Mannheim and Minchul Yum of the VCU School of Business — argue that “when parents care about their children’s educational outcomes relative to those of others, this can lead to high private investment in education,” raising the cost of child-rearing and, in turn, driving fertility rates lower.
The study, part of the fall 2025 edition of BPEA, tests its thesis across countries and within the United States, using proxies such as social media exposure and admissions competitiveness. It also surveys responses, from tutoring curbs in China and Korea to changes in 529 plans in the U.S.
Read the full Brookings article and watch the Sept. 26 presentation
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