School of Business

VCU Blogs

David Soule, University of Richmond – Robins School of Business
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, University of Virginia – Darden School of Business
Jason Merrick, Virginia Commonwealth University – School of Business

Newly published research by Professor Jason Merrick in Management Science introduces a novel methodology for improving forecasting accuracy by combining expert opinions, even with limited data. Unlike previous methods that need significant historical data, the common correlation heuristic overcomes this limitation, requiring fewer data inputs while maintaining reliability.

One potential use of this statistical innovation? NFL teams. Dr. Merrick and his colleagues are working with one NFL team to evaluate draft decision making when combing scout ratings. This methodology is being recognized for its effectiveness and value for decision-makers reliant on expert opinions but challenged in synthesizing insights. For practitioners and companies in fields like economics and elections, this research offers a highly practical and efficient tool for leveraging collective expertise in forecasting.

Read the full research paper:

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